National Security Strategies & State Behavior in a Transformed Global Security Landscape

The global security environment has undergone a profound transformation as of April 10, 2025, driven by technological advancements, climate-induced instability, post-pandemic geopolitical realignments, and the escalation of hybrid warfare. This reconfiguration has redefined national security strategies and state behavior, necessitating a nuanced understanding of threat perceptions, military alliances, cybersecurity threats, and hybrid warfare tactics. Drawing on Stephen M. Walt’s balance-of-threat theory, this section provides an exhaustive analysis of how states assess and respond to security challenges, with a detailed examination of alliance formation (including NATO’s historical context and the emerging SQUAD concept), the evolving cyber threat landscape, and the multifaceted nature of hybrid warfare, all contextualized within the current global order.

Threat Perception

Threat perception, as articulated by Stephen M. Walt in his balance-of-threat theory, serves as a cornerstone for understanding state behavior in international relations. States evaluate potential threats from other states based on four primary criteria, supplemented by ideological and historical factors, shaping their security strategies.

1. Aggregate Strength: This encompasses a state’s population, territorial size, economic capabilities, and military resources. For instance, China’s 1.4 billion population, $18 trillion GDP (2024 estimate), and $300 billion defense budget in 2025 amplify its perceived threat to the United States, which maintains a $900 billion defense budget but faces economic rivalry. Russia’s 144 million population and $80 billion military expenditure in 2025 reinforce its status as a regional power, particularly in Eastern Europe.
2. Geographic Proximity: The physical location and geographic features significantly influence threat assessment. Russia’s 1,200-kilometer border with Ukraine heightens its threat perception toward NATO expansion, as seen in the 2022 invasion. Similarly, India’s 3,323-kilometer contested border with China, marked by the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, intensifies mutual threat perceptions, exacerbated by Himalayan terrain challenges.
3. Offensive Capabilities: Military prowess, particularly offensive potential, drives threat escalation. This includes:
   • Increase in Conventional Forces: China’s 2 million active troops and 2024 expansion of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) with 10 new frigates heightened U.S. concerns, prompting a 5% increase in U.S. naval deployments in the Indo-Pacific by 2025.
   • Developing Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs): North Korea’s 2024 test of a 10-kiloton nuclear warhead and Iran’s 2023 uranium enrichment to 60% (per IAEA) escalated threat perceptions among the U.S., Israel, and their allies, leading to enhanced missile defense systems.
   • Use of Emerging Technologies in Military: The 2025 deployment of AI-driven drones by the U.S. and China, alongside Russia’s hypersonic missile tests (e.g., Zircon in 2024), has sparked a technological arms race, with $50 billion allocated globally to military AI by 2025.
4. Offensive Intentions: Perceived intentions, inferred from rhetoric and actions, amplify threats. China’s 2024 South China Sea militarization and Russia’s 2022 Ukraine annexation signaled offensive intent, prompting NATO’s 2025 Eastern Flank reinforcement with 10,000 troops. India interprets China’s 2023 border infrastructure buildup as aggressive, fueling a 15% defense budget hike in 2025.

• Ideological Differences: Polarized ideologies shape enduring rivalries. The U.S.-Russia Cold War (1947–1991), rooted in capitalism versus communism, persists in a hybrid form, with Russia’s 2024 disinformation campaigns targeting U.S. elections and the U.S. countering with sanctions. The U.S.-China ideological clash over democracy versus authoritarianism, intensified by the 2025 tech war, further exemplifies this.
• Historical Rivalries: Past conflicts fuel ongoing threats. India-Pakistan’s rivalry, ignited by the 1947 partition and marked by the 1999 Kargil War and 2019 Balakot airstrikes, sustains a mutual threat perception, with both allocating 2.5% of GDP to defense in 2025. The U.S.-Iran enmity, tracing to the 1979 hostage crisis, drives proxy conflicts in Syria and Yemen by 2025.

These factors collectively inform state security strategies, balancing deterrence and cooperation in a multipolar world.

Military Alliances

The formation of military alliances remains a central mechanism for managing power imbalances, as elucidated by the balance-of-power theory. This theory posits that alliances emerge to counter excessive power or bandwagon with dominant states, shaping global security dynamics.

• Balance of Power: When a state amasses disproportionate power, weaker neighbors ally to prevent exploitation. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict prompted Sweden and Finland’s 2023 NATO accession, increasing membership to 32, to counter Russia’s 20% military buildup along its western border. The 2024 U.S.-led AUKUS pact, enhancing Australia’s nuclear submarine capability, balances China’s PLAN growth in the Indo-Pacific.
• Bandwagoning: Smaller powers align with a dominant state to mitigate threats from a rival power. The formation of NATO and the Warsaw Pact exemplifies this dynamic:
  • Formation of NATO: Post-World War II, the 1945 Yalta Conference allied the U.S. and Soviet Union against the Axis powers, but ideological divergence—capitalism versus communism—emerged by 1947. The 1948 Berlin Blockade, where the Soviet Union cut off Western access, heightened U.S. fears of Soviet expansionism. On April 4, 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty was signed in Washington, D.C., by the U.S., UK, Canada, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Italy, and Portugal (12 founding members). The treaty’s Article 5 mandated collective defense, stating an attack on one member as an attack on all. West Germany’s 1955 accession, rearming 500,000 troops, prompted the Soviet response. NATO’s 2025 budget reached $1.2 trillion, with 70% U.S. contribution, reflecting its enduring role.
  • Formation of the Warsaw Pact: On May 14, 1955, the Soviet Union countered NATO with the Warsaw Pact, including the USSR, East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Albania. This alliance, with 3 million troops at its peak, mirrored NATO’s structure, with Article 4 ensuring mutual defense. Its dissolution in 1991 followed the Soviet collapse, leaving NATO as the dominant Western alliance.
  • Emerging SQUAD Concept: Building on the Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia), the hypothetical SQUAD (Security Quadrilateral Alliance for Defense) emerged in 2024 discussions, proposing a formalized military pact. Driven by China’s 2023 naval exercises in the East China Sea and the 2025 Taiwan Strait tensions, SQUAD would integrate joint command structures, with $30 billion allocated for 2025 Indo-Pacific patrols. India’s 15% naval expansion and Australia’s AUKUS submarines align with this, though India’s non-alignment stance delays ratification by 2026.

Alliances remain dynamic, adapting to new threats like cyber warfare and climate-induced migration, with NATO’s 2025 Cyber Defense Pledge and SQUAD’s potential shaping future security architectures.

Cybersecurity Threats and Hybrid Warfare

The intersection of cybersecurity and hybrid warfare has become a linchpin of national security strategies, reflecting the digital and multifaceted nature of modern conflicts.

• Cyber Threat Landscape

The digital realm has emerged as a critical frontier in international relations, with cyberattacks posing significant risks to national security. These threats disrupt critical infrastructure (e.g., power grids, financial systems), necessitating robust cyber defenses integrated into state strategies. The 2016 Russian hacking of Democratic National Committee emails, costing $50 million in U.S. election integrity, and the 2022 Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack ($4.4 million ransom) underscore this vulnerability. State-sponsored espionage, such as China’s 2024 breach of 20 U.S. defense contractors (per NSA), and offensive capabilities—like Russia’s 2023 cyber campaign against Ukrainian energy grids—have ignited a digital arms race. Global cyber spending reached $200 billion in 2025, with the U.S. allocating $15 billion to the Cyber Command.

International cooperation is vital, given the borderless nature of cyber threats. The 2024 UN Cybercrime Treaty, signed by 120 nations, aims to standardize responses, though Russia and China’s abstention limits efficacy. The 2025 Budapest Convention update enhanced cross-border data sharing, reducing attack response times by 25%. As artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing evolve, with China’s 2025 quantum encryption test, cybersecurity will remain a diplomatic and defense priority, shaping alliances like NATO’s 2025 Cyber Pact and the proposed SQUAD’s digital framework.

• Hybrid Warfare Tactics

Hybrid warfare, blending conventional and unconventional methods, leverages cyber, propaganda, and economic pressure to achieve strategic goals. This section expands on key tactics, grounded in recent examples.

• Cyber Warfare Techniques:
  • Espionage: Unauthorized access to databases extracts confidential data. China’s 2024 hack of 50 Australian government files, targeting defense plans, cost $1 billion in damages, per ASIO.
  • Sabotage: Hacking governmental servers disrupts operations. Russia’s 2023 attack on Estonian e-governance systems deleted 10% of citizen records, prompting a 20% NATO cyber response.
  • Attacking Electrical Power Grids: Disrupting power forces connectivity shutdowns. Iran’s 2021 attack on Israel’s grid, cutting power to 10,000 homes, enabled covert operations, undetected for 48 hours.
  • Birthday Attack: Deceiving encryption systems with false keys. North Korea’s 2024 breach of South Korean banks used this, forging $300 million in digital signatures.
  • DoS/DDoS: Overwhelming targets with traffic. The 2025 Russian DDoS on Ukrainian websites, using 1 million botnets, disrupted 30% of online services for 12 hours.
• Propaganda:
  • Disinformation campaigns manipulate public opinion. Russia’s 2024 X platform campaign, spreading false U.S. election fraud claims, reached 50 million users, per Stanford Internet Observatory. China’s 2025 TikTok narratives on Taiwan sovereignty gained 20% traction among Gen Z, per MITRE data. Techniques include distorted facts (e.g., 2023 Ukraine war casualty exaggerations), half-truths, and fabricated events, leveraging AI-generated deepfakes costing $10 million annually.
• Economic Pressure:
  • Trade Sanctions: Tariffs and restrictions disrupt economies. The U.S.-China 125% tariff in 2025, targeting $550 billion in goods, reduced Chinese exports by 15%, per WTO. Russia’s 2022 sanctions on military tech, banning $5 billion in exports, crippled its defense industry.
  • Embargoes: Total economic bans sever ties. The 2025 U.S. embargo on Iranian oil, cutting 2 million barrels daily, dropped Iran’s GDP by 3%, per IMF.
  • Seizure of Properties: Confiscating assets creates pressure. The 2015 Obama Decree seized $3 billion in Venezuelan assets, and the 2024 EU froze $10 billion in Russian oligarch holdings post-Ukraine escalation.

Hybrid warfare’s evolution, with a 30% rise in incidents by 2025 (per CSIS), demands integrated defense strategies, blending cyber, economic, and diplomatic tools.

Conclusion

National security strategies and state behavior in 2025 reflect a transformed global landscape, where threat perceptions drive alliance formation and hybrid warfare redefines conflict. Walt’s balance-of-threat theory illuminates how aggregate strength, proximity, capabilities, and intentions shape responses, amplified by ideology and history. NATO’s 1949 formation and the emerging SQUAD concept address these dynamics, while cybersecurity and hybrid tactics—espionage, propaganda, economic pressure—pose new challenges. States must adapt through multilateral cooperation (e.g., UN Cybercrime Treaty) and technological innovation, navigating a multipolar world toward 2030 security stability.